There’s nothing like an old-fashioned debate at No. 1 to spice up the ballot conversation. The top-ranked team lost over the weekend. What’s a voter to do?
Here’s my weekly answer, along with the complete and correct order of the top 25 teams in college basketball, as submitted to the Associated Press Sunday night:
Seth Davis' Top 25 for Monday, Feb. 6
Dropped out: TCU (17), Boise State (23), New Mexico (24)
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Almost Famous: Akron, Arkansas, Auburn, Clemson, Duke, Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Liberty, NC State, Northwestern, Oklahoma State, Texas A&M, UAB, UConn, Virginia Tech
Notes on the votes
• We start at the top, naturally, with Purdue vs. Houston. Houston is No. 1 in more metrics than Purdue, but it’s worth noting that in the two results-based metrics (SOR and KPI), Purdue is No. 1 and No. 2, respectively. That’s noteworthy because the other metrics are predictive, whereas those are results-based. But the main thing that swayed me to go with Purdue is its 9-2 record in Quad 1 games, which is by far the best in the country. The only team with that many Quad 1 wins is Kansas, and the Jayhawks also have five Quad 1 losses.
Houston, on the other hand, is 5-1 in Quad 1 games. Also, Purdue does not have any losses outside of Quad 1, whereas Houston has a Quad 3 loss at home against Temple (albeit by one lousy point). If Purdue loses again and Houston keeps winning, I will consider flipping them, although it depends, as always, on whom Purdue loses to, where the game was played, and the margin of defeat. Houston has just one more Quad 1 game remaining (at Memphis on March 5); Purdue has five. That’s a double-edged sword — fewer opportunities to improve that Quad 1 record also means fewer potential losses. The distance between these two teams got closer over the weekend, but in my eyes, Purdue is still the clear choice at No. 1.
• I anticipated dropping Tennessee more than I did, but the Volunteers’ dominating win over Texas on Jan. 28 got even better last week when the Longhorns beat Baylor at home and Kansas State on the road. Tennessee lost at Florida, and though it looked awful in beating Auburn at home on Saturday, it did win the game. (I still see no case for ranking Auburn, by the way.) The Vols are also ranked between Nos. 1-5 in the four main metrics (NET, KenPom, KPI and BartTorvik). That led me to leave them one spot ahead of Arizona even though the Wildcats beat the Vols in Tucson on Dec. 17. Arizona’s losses (at Utah, home vs. Washington State, at Oregon) are collectively worse than Tennessee’s (Colorado on a neutral court, at Arizona, home vs. Kentucky, at Florida). Plus, Tennessee has a neutral-court win over Kansas. It was a close call between those two for sure.
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• Speaking of Arizona, as I mentioned on TV and on Twitter over the weekend, this team was 88th in the country in adjusted defensive efficiency on KenPom on Jan. 18. But in the games played since then, Arizona is ranked No. 1 in the country in defensive efficiency, according to BartTorvik.com. The low defense ranking was the reason I left Arizona out of my first-ever Magic Eight, but give this team credit for making a remarkable turnaround in that department.
Crazy state: On Jan. 18 Arizona was ranked 88th in the country in defensive efficiency.
In games played since then the Wildcats are ranked No. 1 in the U.S. in defensive efficiency.
The script has flipped in Tucson.
— Seth Davis (@SethDavisHoops) February 5, 2023
• The Big 12 is a mess as usual. Iowa State blows a 23-point lead at Texas Tech, and then thumps Kansas at home by 15. Kansas State loses at Kansas and at home to Texas, both respectable losses, but for some reason the metrics do not like the Wildcats. They are No. 10 in KPI, No. 22 in the NET, No. 22 in KenPom and No. 23 in BartTorvik. Kansas’ metric rankings range between Nos. 10-15. Baylor lost at Texas and beat Texas Tech at home. All this adds up to a minor reshuffling, lots of sound and fury signifying very little.
• Indiana had the biggest win of the week over Purdue. That vaulted the Hoosiers into my top 10. They would have been higher had they not also lost at Maryland. Their metrics range is 16-28, and they are an underwhelming 3-6 in Quad 1 games. UCLA is also underwater in this all-important category (3-4), but unlike Indiana, the Bruins haven’t beaten any other team in my top 25. They also lost to Baylor on a neutral court, though that was back in November. That’s why the Bruins’ ranking here is below their metric range (3-9).
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• I know Marquette fans have been frustrated with me, and I’m sure they won’t be happy the Golden Eagles dropped a spot even though they won twice last week. Here’s something that’s not being said enough: The Big East is kind of meh. Yes, Marquette beat Villanova and Butler at home last week, but those counted as Quad 3 wins. Moreover, the Golden Eagles’ loss at home to Wisconsin is now considered a Quad 2 loss because the Badgers are in a tailspin. Kansas, which is one spot ahead of Marquette, has no losses outside of Quad 1, it has five more Quad 1 wins than Marquette, and its metrics range (3-10) is stronger than Marquette’s (8-22). The good news – or is it bad news? — for Marquette is that three of its next four games are Quad 1, beginning with Tuesday’s game at UConn.
• Great win on Saturday night for the metrics’ favorite team, Saint Mary’s, over Gonzaga. The Gaels only vaulted three spots because a) the win came at home b) it was in overtime and c) I had already dropped Gonzaga to No. 18 following its home loss to Loyola Marymount. If nothing else, the Gaels deserved to be ranked ahead of the Zags, but with a 2-1 Quad 1 record and two Quad 3 losses, it will be hard to move them any higher until and unless they win at Gonzaga on Feb. 25.
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• It pained me to drop TCU because of all the injuries, but I have to go by results, and the reality is that the Horned Frogs have lost two of their last three, including Saturday’s 79-73 loss at Oklahoma State. TCU showed how good it is at full strength when it ran Kansas out of Allen Fieldhouse, but the way this season is going, I don’t know that we’ll ever see this team fully healthy again.
• Maryland’s metrics aren’t great (20-42), but the Terrapins’ win at home over Indiana got even better when the Hoosiers knocked off Purdue. All seven of the Terps’ losses were in Quad 1, and their only loss in their last seven games was by three points at Purdue. Miami has much the same profile — mediocre metrics (20-42) but two really good wins last week (Virginia Tech at home, at Clemson).
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• There was some carnage in the Mountain West last week. There’s no shame in losing at San Diego State, but when you lose by 20 points, as Boise State did, you get dropped. There’s also no shame in losing by nine points at Nevada, as the Aztecs did, so I left them on the ballot and rewarded Nevada. New Mexico also got dropped for losing at Utah State, its second loss in the last three games.
• FAU remains ranked despite its loss at UAB. The Owls have a respectable metrics range (18-35), but they don’t have any more Quad 1 games, so if they lose again they’ll be dropped for good.
• I looked closely at Arkansas, NC State and Virginia Tech for the last spot. The Razorbacks have won four of their last five, but they have a 1-5 record in Quad 1, whereas the Wolfpack are 3-4 and the Hokies are 3-5. The Hokies got a great win at home last week against Virginia, but they are 0-7 in road games. Gotta fix that. NC State won the head-to-head matchup with Virginia Tech on Jan. 7, and although Hunter Cattoor did not play that day for Virginia Tech, the game was in Blacksburg. NC State has won four in a row against the bottom tier of the ACC. The Wolfpack could have clinched a spot on my ballot in Chapel Hill on Jan. 21, but instead, they lost to the Tar Heels, 80-69.
• As for some others on my Almost Famous list, Kentucky still only has one Quad 1 win (a really good one at Tennessee), but six of its remaining eight games are in Quad 1. Illinois blew a chance to get ranked by losing at Iowa on Saturday. That was Iowa’s third straight win, but all of those were at home, and the Hawkeyes lost their previous two games on the road. If the Hawkeyes want to get on my ballot next week, all they have to do is win at Purdue Thursday. Easy peasy, right?
(Top photo of Purdue’s Zach Edey, left, and Indiana’s Trayce Jackson-Davis: Andy Lyons / Getty Images)
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